Is Traditional PC Gaming Threatened by Mobile Devices?

There has been much ink spilled about the “end of the PCs”.  Much of that has to do with the rise of smartphones and tablets (my view of the relationship between mobile devices and PCs at some other time), and there is no doubt that smartphones and tablets have seen a meteoric rise in sales in recent years.  At the same time, the graphics processing on those devices has significantly improved to the point where valid comparisons can be made between current generation console graphics and say an iPad or the Tegra 3.

The PC gaming market, on the other hand, is relatively stagnant from a growth perspective.  Console gaming has taken a large chunk of the mainstream gamers away from PC gaming.  What’s left are typically pretty impassioned enthusiasts but a relatively small subset of overall gamers.  Even with digital downloading, Steam, mods, and other myriad benefits of PC Gaming, the growth simply isn’t there.  But if you look at the chart I posted the other day, I think it will help with my explanation of my theory.

Now there are various reasons why PC Gamers game on PCs, and I will not bother to list them all here (I tried but there were too many, and this post isn’t about that), but the one reason that I think is critical is that typical PC gamers are looking for the BEST experience they can get for their budget.  For example, I recently purchased a new graphics card which incidentally happens to be roughly the same price as the cost of the components of a new iPad, but my graphics card is just for rendering graphics.  The reason I spent so much was not because I absolutely needed that level of performance or that I am dumb (although maybe…).  Rather, I am sure I could have made do with a much less impressive (read: expensive) card.  I did it though because I wanted the BEST visual experience for my budget.  I would say that that is typical for the average PC Gamer.  And yes, we could all spend less and get a console (and many us have consoles too), but we want the better visual experience and so we want to spend what it will take to get that better experience.  You need look no further than the number of gamers willing to spend money on top-of-the-line graphics cards and 30” high resolution monitors to see that there is a real desire to get that “best” experience possible.



On the other hand, look at the console market.  The Xbox 360 and the PS3 were introduced eons ago by computer standards.  Their graphics hardware is sadly out of date.  And sadder still, the rumored new consoles won’t come out until 2013 at the earliest.  Even then, rumored next Xbox graphics specs are fairly pathetic (a previous generation entry level graphics card) even by today’s standards.  The point is that current generation consoles are very far from top-of-the-line graphically, and are currently being matched by today’s mobile graphics processors like the Tegra 3.

The point is that mobile graphics technology is advancing rapidly, and at the same time, the consoles really aren’t.  Computer graphics hardware, always being at the forefront of the technology space will advance as rapidly as chip companies improve their products and so for the foreseeable future will stay comfortably ahead of any mobile graphics technology.  Consoles on the other hand, really need a serious boost in graphics horsepower to stave off the advance of mobile products.

Complicating matters further is that PC CPU makers are focusing more and more of their development time on improving graphics technology.  AMD has their line of APUs that provide pretty decent integrated performance at no extra cost (no need for additional graphics horsepower), and Intel is further behind but rapidly advancing their technology too.  Next year’s Intel chip is supposed to be a graphics monster.  It is quite possible that they will reach or exceed the power of a current generation console before the next generation consoles arrive.

The situation really comes down to this:  There is a real chance if Microsoft and Sony are not vigilant that mobile graphics hardware of tablets, smartphones, and even integrated graphics for PCs could match or surpass the graphics power of even next-gen consoles.  If mobile hardware can even get close, the value proposition of the consoles becomes dubious given that a smartphone, tablet, or laptop would be capable of many other things.

PCs on the other hand seem likely to maintain a fairly sizeable lead in graphics power for at least several more years and will therefore still remain a viable market as PC gamers look for the best visual experience possible on their budget which will still remain on the PC.

In fact, I think it is possible that you could see a convergence on the console as high-end PC hardware keeps enthusiasts, and low-end PC hardware (integrated graphics) and more and more powerful mobile devices chip away from the top and bottom respectively at the console market.  The problem for consoles in particular is that all of the other products do so much more than just play games, so where does the market for consoles come from if they don’t offer significantly better graphics than what can be found in your laptop or phone (two things you’ll probably have no matter what)?